- Will Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?34¢34%
- Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?22¢22%
- Will Guitarricadelafuente win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?16¢16%
- Will Robert Pattinson win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?13¢13%
- Will Edward Norton win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?6¢6%
- Will Sam Rockwell win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢4%
- Will John Leguizamo win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢4%
- Will John Goodman win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢4%
- Will Tom Holland win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?2¢2%
- Will Miles Teller win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?1¢1%
- Will Steve Buscemi win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?1¢1%
- Will Michael Fassbender win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?1¢1%
Paul Giamatti leads the market at 32% implied probability for the 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar thanks to strong early festival buzz for his turn as a demanding theater director in A24’s The Debut and the industry narrative positioning him as overdue after his The Holdovers near-miss. Andrew Garfield has climbed to 21.5% on the strength of rave reviews for his performance in Neon’s Artificial, while Guitarricadelafuente sits at 20% amid Netflix’s La Bola Negra push. The tightly bunched field reflects multiple contenders from high-profile releases like The Odyssey and Wild Horse Nine, with critical reception, guild nods, and precursor awards poised to shift momentum before nominations in January. Traders are watching late-year reviews and box-office trajectories for clarity in this wide-open race.
Rules
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.