- Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?2¢2%
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?3¢3%
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?4¢4%
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?17¢17%
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?19¢19%
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?28¢28%
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?25¢25%
- 1.9%<500B$47.2k Vol.
- 2.7%500–750B$37.2k Vol.
- 3.6%750B–1T$151.9k Vol.
- 3%17.4%1T–1.25T$142.6k Vol.
- 4%19%1.25T–1.5T$93.8k Vol.
- 1%27.7%1.5T+$193.5k Vol.
- 1%25.3%No IPO by December 31, 2027$115.8k Vol.
Recent funding at a $1.25 trillion valuation, following an $11 billion tranche closed in early November 2026 after scaling back from a $1.4 trillion target amid AI stock weakness, anchors trader expectations near or above $1 trillion while highlighting execution risks. Enterprise revenue now comprises the majority of OpenAI’s run-rate nearing $70 billion, yet CEO emphasis on AI safety has deferred any IPO until 2027, elevating the “no listing by end-2027” outcome. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s pending S-1 filing adds timing uncertainty, as broader market volatility and infrastructure concerns temper willingness to price above recent private marks. These factors sustain close contest between elevated closing market-cap buckets and delayed-IPO probabilities.
Rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.