This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Gold prices, currently trading near $4,430–$4,500 per ounce on December 2026 COMEX futures as of mid-August 2026, remain sensitive to real yields and Federal Reserve policy amid persistent inflation near 3.4–3.5%. Hawkish signals and reduced odds of near-term rate cuts—markets now price a roughly 50–55% chance of at least one hike by year-end—have contributed to the correction from January’s $5,500+ peak, outweighing structural support from central bank purchases and geopolitical hedging. Recent tame CPI prints have eased immediate tightening fears and supported a modest rebound, but elevated policy rates continue to raise gold’s opportunity cost versus Treasuries. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming employment and inflation releases, and any shifts in dollar strength or risk sentiment that could alter the implied rate path.