- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be less than 3,900,000?8¢8%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 3,900,000 and 4,050,000?6¢6%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,050,000 and 4,200,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,200,000 and 4,350,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,350,000 and 4,500,000?5¢5%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,500,000 and 4,650,000?12¢12%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,650,000 and 4,800,000?17¢17%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,800,000 and 4,950,000?17¢17%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,950,000 and 5,100,000?8¢8%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be 5,100,000 or more?26¢26%
The closely contested Ohio Senate special election between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted, with recent polling averages showing Brown ahead by roughly three to four points, drives elevated trader expectations for total votes cast on November 3. Surging early voting—up more than 30 percent from the same point in 2022, including quadrupled in-person participation in key urban counties—reflects strong mobilization on both sides amid high campaign spending and economic concerns. With roughly eight million registered voters in this battleground state, primary trends and likely-voter modeling point to robust base turnout and independent crossover potential that could push totals into the leading 5.1M+ bin. Key differentiators include Democratic enthusiasm in early returns versus Republican Election Day strength, while factors like weather, final get-out-the-vote efforts, and any late shifts in enthusiasm could consolidate support around mid-to-high range outcomes.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.