- Will the CAQ win fewer than 5 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?3¢
- Will the CAQ win 5-9 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?9¢
- Will the CAQ win 10-14 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?22¢
- Will the CAQ win 15-19 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?18¢
- Will the CAQ win 20-24 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?18¢
- Will the CAQ win 25-29 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?13¢
- Will the CAQ win 30 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?22¢
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Recent polling in the final weeks before Quebec’s October 5 election shows the CAQ closing sharply on the Parti Québécois, with a late-August Synopsis survey placing the two parties in a statistical tie at 27-28% amid gains for new CAQ leader Christine Fréchette among francophones, women, and voters over 55. Aggregators such as 338Canada project the CAQ in a wide 8-49 seat range, reflecting vote efficiency challenges, numerous tight ridings between the CAQ and PQ, and a likely minority outcome that could hinge on turnout and late swings. Regional fragmentation—CAQ strength outside Montreal, Liberal concentration in the city, and Conservative inroads in Quebec City—further widens the distribution of plausible seat totals for the incumbent party.