- Will annual inflation be 3.2% or less in October?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.3% in October?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.4% in October?4¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.5% in October?4¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?19¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?53¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?31¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?29¢
- Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?20¢
- Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?2¢
- Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?4¢
- Will annual inflation be 4.3% or more in October?<1¢
October inflation data remains closely contested in the market, with 3.8% and 3.7% annual CPI outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 40% and 38.5% respectively. Recent labor market softening and moderating energy prices have narrowed the range of expected prints, while persistent services inflation and shelter costs continue to anchor the upper end of trader expectations. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the November release, incorporating September’s CPI trajectory and the latest FOMC communications on the policy path. Key differentiating factors include the pace of core goods deflation versus sticky housing components, with any surprise in October’s nonfarm payrolls or retail sales potentially shifting probabilities between the leading outcomes.
Rules
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.