- Obama arrested before 2027?2¢2%
The high trader consensus against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active federal or state investigations or charges against the former president that could plausibly lead to detention. Institutional factors such as ongoing security protections, established legal precedents on executive immunity, and historical patterns of no post-tenure arrests for U.S. presidents reinforce this view. With the resolution window closing at the end of 2026, traders see few realistic pathways under current enforcement priorities and procedural norms. Scenarios that could still shift odds include major new evidence emerging in unrelated matters or abrupt changes in prosecutorial direction, though such developments would require verifiable developments to overcome existing barriers.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.