- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-24 House seat?8¢
- Will the Republican Party win the NY-24 House seat?94¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in the NY-24 House race, with traders assigning her party a 93.5% implied probability of victory against the Democratic nominee. The district’s R+11 partisan voting index, encompassing rural counties and Lake Ontario suburbs that have consistently supported Republicans in recent cycles, underpins the assessment, reinforced by Tenney’s uncontested primary win and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.5 million. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic candidate Alissa Ellman secured her nomination in June but trails significantly in resources. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a pronounced national midterm swing, an unforeseen scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or stronger-than-expected performance by the independent candidates on the ballot.