NY-22 House Election Winner
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?92¢
- Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat?8¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democrat John Mannion faces minimal opposition in New York’s 22nd congressional district, a seat forecasters rate as solidly Democratic based on its partisan voting index and 2024 results. The Republican primary produced nominee Kailee Buller without contest, leaving no strong challenger to contest the November 2026 general election. This structural advantage, combined with historical midterm patterns favoring the incumbent party in safe districts, underpins the 92% trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, health events, or abrupt national political realignments that erode the district’s lean, though such factors have rarely overcome entrenched advantages in comparable races.