- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?95¢
- Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat?5¢
Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in the November 3, 2026, election for New York’s 22nd congressional district due to redistricting that shifted the seat toward a Democratic voter advantage and his strong 2024 performance flipping the district. Mannion’s substantial fundraising edge—over $2.7 million raised with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand versus Kailee Buller’s $267,000—has supported sustained campaign operations through the final weeks. Multiple October debates highlighted differences on affordability, agriculture, and immigration, yet forecasters across outlets rate the race solid or safe Democratic with no competitive general-election polling emerging. Buller, a former USDA official, has emphasized energy and farm issues but faces structural headwinds in a district now favoring the incumbent. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unusually high turnout shifts remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).