- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-06 House seat?95¢
- Will the Republican Party win the NY-06 House seat?6¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democratic Representative Grace Meng secured her party's nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary and faces Republican Joseph Chou in the November 3 general election for New York's 6th congressional district, centered in Queens. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its consistent partisan lean, Meng's prior general election margins exceeding 60 percent, and limited Republican infrastructure or fundraising in the district. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or significant campaign developments since the primary. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain rare in this environment.