- Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?8¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?93¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democratic Representative Tom Suozzi secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Michael LiPetri Jr. in the November general election. The district's partisan voter index hovers near even, and Suozzi previously prevailed by roughly four points in 2024 amid stronger Democratic performance on Long Island. Forecasters rate the seat as Lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent's fundraising edge, name recognition, and consistent support in a competitive suburban constituency. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent for Democrats incorporates these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions. A national Republican wave, unforeseen personal or ethical issues affecting Suozzi, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome before Election Day.