- Will the Democratic Party win the NV-03 House seat?95¢
- Will the Republican Party win the NV-03 House seat?6¢
Incumbent Democrat Susie Lee holds a commanding lead in the Nevada 3rd congressional district race, supported by her established fundraising edge of $3.7 million in cash on hand compared to Republican challenger Martin O'Donnell's $2.4 million. Recent forecaster upgrades, including the Cook Political Report moving the seat to Likely Democratic on October 9, reflect the district's modest partisan lean and Lee's prior narrow victories. The most immediate factor reinforcing trader consensus is the mid-October withdrawal of roughly $1 million in planned Republican outside advertising by a Trump-aligned PAC, which redirected resources toward more competitive House contests. Early voting begins October 17, leaving limited time for O'Donnell to close the gap absent a major national shift or turnout surge. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include stronger Republican performance among independents or late campaign developments, though structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).