- Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?17¢17%
- Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?34¢34%
- Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?60¢60%
- Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?86¢86%
Israel heads to the polls on October 27, 2026, in a closely contested legislative election projected to leave both Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc and the opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot short of the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority. Recent polling averages show the opposition bloc at roughly 52–56 seats versus around 50 for Netanyahu’s alliance, with Arab-led parties holding potential kingmaker influence amid disputes over coalition inclusion. Record voter turnout and surplus-vote pacts have sharpened focus on post-election bargaining, where Haredi conscription, security policy after October 2023, and possible minority or unity arrangements could determine the first mandate recipient and ultimate government composition. Coalition talks may extend weeks or trigger further elections if no viable majority emerges.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.