- Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?87¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?14¢
Brad Knott holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in North Carolina’s 13th congressional district, which carries an R+8 Partisan Voter Index and delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential elections. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting the district’s baseline and Knott’s primary performance. Paul Barringer secured the Democratic nomination but faces structural headwinds despite raising comparable funds and drawing DCCC attention to the contest in early October. No public polls have emerged to challenge the consensus, and the November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts absent major developments. Traders’ implied probabilities align closely with these fundamentals and historical patterns for similar districts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).