- Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?41¢
- Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?70¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The relevant airports are: - Sheremetyevo (SVO); - Domodedovo (DME); and - Vnukovo (VKO). A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify. The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ukrainian drone attacks remain the dominant driver of repeated temporary suspensions at Moscow's major airports, including Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky. Russian authorities have imposed flight restrictions via Rosaviatsiya multiple times in 2026, most notably during large-scale Ukrainian drone assaults in mid-June that prompted full closures lasting several hours, with similar measures enacted around Victory Day security in May and additional incidents later that month. Heightened airspace limits on transit flights over the Moscow region were introduced in July amid a sustained rise in such threats since spring. These verified security responses have created ongoing operational disruptions, shifting some passenger traffic toward rail alternatives while trader focus centers on escalation patterns in the conflict and any new diplomatic or military developments that could alter attack frequency within the market's resolution window.