- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%?0¢
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?0¢
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?0¢
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?0¢
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?0¢
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?0¢
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?0¢
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 15%?0¢
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?0¢
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?100¢
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary, defeating Rep. Haley Stevens by a margin of just under one percentage point (48.5% to 47.5%). Late polls had shown El-Sayed ahead by double digits after Mallory McMorrow withdrew, yet the final tally proved far tighter amid record outside spending favoring Stevens, including substantial pro-Israel group involvement, and sharp intraparty divides over policy priorities and endorsements from figures such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The confirmed narrow result, now reflected in nearly complete vote counts, has produced overwhelming trader consensus on a sub-5% victory. A successful recount or certification dispute could theoretically alter the precise margin, though available data indicate such changes would remain well below 5 points.