- Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?19¢
- Will the Labor Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?<1¢
- Will Citizens’ Movement (MC) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?<1¢
- Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?1¢
- Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?<1¢
- Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?81¢
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Morena holds a commanding position in the 2027 Mexican legislative election for all 500 Chamber of Deputies seats, scheduled for June 6, reflecting sustained voter support for the ruling coalition and President Sheinbaum's administration. Recent polling shows the party at roughly 45 percent, well ahead of fragmented opposition contenders. The breakdown of prior alliances has left PAN, PRI, and MC running independently, diluting their combined strength and reinforcing Morena's path to a majority. Ongoing legislative dynamics and the absence of major disruptive events since mid-2026 have kept trader consensus stable around these probabilities.