- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.5%?<1¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?2¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?24¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?45¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?21¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?7¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?3¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?<1¢
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter expansion after a 0.6% Q1 contraction, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate sequential growth for Q3, with the 1.5-2.0% range holding a 45.5% implied probability. Persistent softness in domestic consumption, a June monthly contraction, and post-World Cup normalization have tempered optimism, while export resilience in technology-linked sectors provides partial support. Analyst forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster near 1.1-1.4%, reflecting Banxico and IMF projections amid trade uncertainties and subdued investment. This positions the 1.0-1.5% and 2.0-2.5% bands as secondary outcomes, with traders monitoring upcoming monthly activity indicators for signs of further deceleration or stabilization.