- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.5%?8¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?1¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?4¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?4¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?26¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?37¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?30¢
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?4¢
Trader sentiment for Mexico's Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth reflects expectations of moderate expansion in the 2.5-3.5% range, driven primarily by resilient exports and nearshoring momentum amid a softer domestic demand backdrop. Recent data show Q2 2026 growth at 1.4%, with full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and others clustered around 1.2-1.5%, though official outlooks extend higher to 1.8-2.8%. Key differentiating factors include U.S. trade dynamics, Banxico monetary policy easing, and inflation trends near target, which support a modest rebound from prior quarters. The closely contested market-implied odds highlight uncertainty ahead of the October 30, 2026, official release, where stronger-than-expected industrial production or export figures could shift probabilities toward the upper brackets.
Rules
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.