Elevated capital expenditures of $130–145 billion for 2026 and a potential one-time $10 billion legal accrual are pressuring earnings per share expectations for Meta's third-quarter results, due after the close on October 21. Consensus revenue estimates center near $63.3 billion, reflecting about 24% year-over-year growth from advertising strength, yet EPS forecasts around $6–7 show compression relative to adjusted prior-year levels amid rising infrastructure and operating costs. The Q2 miss on EPS despite a revenue beat underscores ongoing margin sensitivity. Market-implied odds of 76% for missing consensus reflect trader focus on these spending dynamics versus ad demand, with the upcoming release and guidance serving as the immediate catalyst for any repricing.
As of market creation, Meta is estimated to release earnings on October 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Meta's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $6.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta reports GAAP EPS greater than $6.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Meta releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.