- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?13¢
- Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?88¢
- Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
- Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
AfD leads recent Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election polling by a consistent margin ahead of the 20 September 2026 vote. Multiple August 2026 surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap place AfD at 35–36 percent, ahead of SPD at 28–29 percent, with Linke around 11–12 percent, CDU near 10 percent, and BSW, Greens, and FDP at or below the 5 percent threshold. This positions AfD as the clear frontrunner for the largest share of seats in the 71-member Landtag under the state's personalized proportional system. The current SPD–Linke coalition trails in combined support, and AfD's lead has held steady since early 2026 amid broader eastern German trends. Traders assign AfD an 87.5 percent implied probability of finishing first, consistent with the sustained polling gap, while SPD sits at 13 percent. The final weeks of campaigning, including candidate positioning by Manuela Schwesig and Leif-Erik Holm, represent the remaining variables before results determine market resolution.