- Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat?7¢
- Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?91¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Republican Andy Harris holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the district’s R+8 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Harris secured renomination with over 80 percent in the June Republican primary while Democrat Dan Schwartz prevailed in a four-candidate Democratic primary; Harris maintains a substantial fundraising lead. Attempts at mid-decade redistricting that could have altered the Eastern Shore district’s lines stalled in the legislature, leaving the current map intact. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome in this reliably Republican-leaning seat.