- Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?87¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat?14¢
Incumbent Republican Andy Harris holds a strong position in Maryland's 1st Congressional District due to the area's consistent Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's double-digit margins in recent presidential cycles and the district's R+8 partisan voting index. Harris secured his party's nomination comfortably in the June primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Dan Schwartz. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. A recent October debate highlighted differences on issues including federal spending, healthcare, and redistricting efforts, but the contest remains non-competitive in most models. Current trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).