- Will Beto do Movimento win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Reinaldo Azambuja win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?8¢
- Will Roberto Oshiro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Valter da Comagran win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Capitão Contar win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?47¢
- Will Daniel Junior win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Luiz Lemes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Soraya win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?13¢
- Will Valderi Garcia win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Vander Loubet win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?32¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polls show Reinaldo Azambuja leading the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for one of two seats, leaving a competitive contest for second place among Capitão Contar, Vander Loubet, and Soraya Thronicke. The PL alliance pairing Azambuja with Contar has consolidated center-right support, while the opposition field remains split between the PT and PSB candidacies. The latest Quaest survey from late August places Contar ahead of Loubet and Thronicke in combined voting intentions, though large shares of undecided voters and potential second-preference shifts keep the positioning fluid ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader pricing reflects this narrow gap for second place amid ongoing campaign consolidation and limited recent movement in the polls.