- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be less than 1,550,000?2¢2%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be between 1,550,000 and 1,700,000?1¢1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be between 1,700,000 and 1,850,000?2¢2%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be between 1,850,000 and 2,000,000?27¢27%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be between 2,000,000 and 2,150,000?20¢20%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be between 2,150,000 and 2,300,000?23¢23%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be between 2,300,000 and 2,450,000?14¢14%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be 2,450,000 or more?10¢10%
In the closely matched Maryland gubernatorial turnout market, trader consensus centers on 1.85M–2.15M total ballots as the leading range because the November 3 contest features a heavily favored incumbent Democrat in a low-competition environment. Wes Moore’s double-digit polling lead and safe Democratic rating have produced limited campaign intensity, mirroring the 2026 primary’s record-low participation and historical off-year general election turnout of 45–50 percent of eligible voters. With no competitive U.S. Senate race or presidential contest on the ballot to drive mobilization, turnout hinges on standard factors such as early and mail voting patterns, weather on Election Day, and get-out-the-vote efforts by both parties. Late developments including any high-profile endorsements, local controversies, or unusually strong partisan mobilization could shift totals into higher or lower bins by altering participation among unaffiliated and infrequent voters.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.