- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?88¢88%
- Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?2¢2%
- Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Santiago Rosendo Abarca León win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Sandro Caller Gutiérrez win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Jessica Viviana Linares Romero win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Rubén José Ramírez Mateo win the next Lima mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
Rafael López Aliaga's Renovación Popular list maintains a narrow lead of roughly one percentage point in the October 4, 2026, Lima municipal election, with over 95% of ballots processed and a margin of about 50,000 votes. Traders assign his outcome a 91% implied probability because the remaining disputed tally sheets and appeals are unlikely to close the gap, while historical patterns show first-place lists typically secure the mayoralty once the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones resolves challenges. The constitutional prohibition on immediate re-election creates the main uncertainty, as López Aliaga resigned the post in 2025 and appears on the ticket as first councillor after the original mayoral candidate withdrew. Adverse rulings on eligibility or unexpected shifts in contested ballots represent the primary scenarios that could alter the current consensus.
Rules
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).