- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?2¢2%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -2.4% and -1.6%?3¢3%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -1.6% and -0.8%?17¢17%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?21¢21%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?33¢33%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?14¢14%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%?12¢12%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 2.4% and 3.2%?3¢3%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 3.2% and 4.0%?2¢2%
- Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be at least 4.0%?1¢1%
Recent monthly indicators, including August industrial production declines and softer retail sales, point to subdued Q3 2026 real GDP growth on a QoQ annualized basis, with JCER forecasters revising their estimate down to 0.08% and other models projecting near-zero or mildly negative readings. Weak net exports from rising imports and pausing export momentum, alongside flat domestic corporate goods prices, weigh on the outlook, while resilient capital goods shipments and wage-supported consumption provide limited offsets. Sticky core CPI at 2.1% year-over-year in September and underlying measures at 2.4% sustain Bank of Japan hawkish signals ahead of its late-October meeting, though geopolitical energy price pressures and uneven external demand add uncertainty. Trader consensus across the wide probability distribution reflects this data-driven caution ahead of the mid-November preliminary release.
Rules
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html