- Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Ra'am win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?6¢6%
- Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?92¢92%
Ra'am's projected seat total reflects strong Arab voter turnout in the October 27, 2026 Knesset election and its performance exceeding most pre-election polling averages. Exit polls and partial counts with over 90% of ballots tallied show the party, led by Mansour Abbas, securing 7 or 8 seats, up from its 5 seats in the outgoing Knesset. Higher participation in Arab communities, including record turnout in some Bedouin areas, contributed to the combined Arab lists reaching 18–19 seats. Recent shifts in the count have moved one seat from the Joint List to Ra'am, keeping both outcomes competitive. Final certification is expected by November 4 after double-envelope ballots are processed, with traders pricing the current tally as the dominant factor behind the 8+ lead in market consensus.
Rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).