This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange. An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing. If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Anthropic’s confidential SEC S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by July reports of bankers scheduling investor meetings, has anchored trader expectations around an October debut at 68.5% implied probability. The company’s rapid revenue growth and $965 billion valuation underscore its readiness, while positioning it competitively against OpenAI in the race to public markets. Typical post-filing timelines and supportive AI-sector sentiment reinforce October as the leading window, though September at 19% reflects any acceleration and November at 9% captures potential delays from SEC review or market volatility. No official date has been confirmed, leaving room for shifts based on roadshow feedback or broader conditions.