- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be less than 480,000?1¢1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 480,000 and 520,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 520,000 and 560,000?1¢1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 560,000 and 600,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 600,000 and 640,000?28¢28%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 640,000 and 680,000?18¢18%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 680,000 and 720,000?23¢23%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be 720,000 or more?24¢24%
In Idaho's November 3 Senate contest, incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding lead over independent Todd Achilles in polling and early vote data, with Republicans casting nearly 70% of the roughly 29,000 mail ballots returned so far. This low-competition dynamic in a deeply Republican state shapes trader expectations for moderate turnout in the 600,000–720,000 range. Safe-seat races historically suppress participation relative to presidential years, and limited early voting eight days before Election Day reinforces the market's clustering around 600k–640k. Upcoming get-out-the-vote efforts and Election Day volume remain the primary variables that could shift totals within the leading bands.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.