- Will "Yes" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by at least 15%?25¢
- Will "Yes" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 12–15%?28¢
- Will "Yes" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 9–12%?10¢
- Will "Yes" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 6–9%?18¢
- Will "Yes" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 3–6%?10¢
- Will "Yes" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by less than 3%?26¢
- Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by less than 3%?40¢
- Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 3–6%?27¢
- Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 6–9%?28¢
- Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 9–12%?11¢
- Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 12–15%?18¢
- Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by at least 15%?10¢
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
The referendum on resuming EU accession talks took place on 29 August 2026 in an exceptionally tight race, with final pre-vote polls from Maskína and Gallup showing Yes and No separated by less than one point—well within the margin of error. This produced the current trader consensus favoring very narrow victory margins or “Other,” as partial results (around 31% counted) indicated Yes ahead by roughly three points while full nationwide tallies remain pending. Key drivers include voter priorities on fisheries sovereignty, cost-of-living pressures, and broader security considerations amid the Ukraine conflict and U.S. policy shifts. The non-binding nature of the outcome and historical precedent of close Icelandic EU-related votes further reinforce the market’s emphasis on slim margins rather than decisive results.