- Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?3¢
- Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?18¢
- Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?22¢
- Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?3¢
- Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?5¢
- Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?42¢
- Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?8¢
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
United Russia enters the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election holding roughly 310–321 seats and benefits from Russia’s mixed electoral system (225 proportional seats with a 5% threshold plus 225 single-member districts), plus longstanding administrative resources, media access, and candidate qualification controls that have consistently delivered large majorities. Recent state-affiliated polling from FOM and WCIOM shows United Russia at 33–37% in party-list voting—down from prior cycles amid war-related economic pressures and fatigue—but the party’s near-total dominance in single-mandate districts and Putin’s public endorsement at its August 22 congress underpin expectations of another constitutional majority. The official campaign launch, approval of the party’s “People’s Program,” emphasis on veterans among candidates, and the Supreme Court’s disqualification of Yabloko from the federal list have further consolidated its position. These factors, combined with three-day voting and expanded electronic voting, position the 325–339 seat band as the trader consensus, with adjacent ranges (310–324 and 340–354) reflecting modest uncertainty over turnout and the precise distribution of list versus district seats. Lower outcomes remain priced as tail risks given the structural barriers to meaningful erosion of the ruling party’s edge.