- Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?<1¢
- Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?70¢
- Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?22¢
- Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?2¢
- Will exactly 4 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?<1¢
- Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election follows the first full four-year term since 1988, with polls showing Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc projected near 51-52 seats and the opposition bloc around 55-67, both short of the 61-seat majority required under proportional representation. Fragmentation near the 3.25% threshold, new lists such as Yashar and Together, and ongoing coalition negotiations after the vote create uncertainty about post-election government formation. Traders assign 74.5% probability to one election sufficing, reflecting the view that parties will reach a workable coalition without further dissolution despite bloc shortfalls and threshold risks. Historical patterns of repeated snap elections in prior deadlocks inform the lower probabilities assigned to two or more rounds.