- Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?<1¢
- Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?3¢
- Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?6¢
- Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?66¢
- Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?19¢
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Democrats currently hold three of Nevada’s four U.S. House seats, and recent ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections continue to favor retention of those districts in the 2026 midterms. Incumbents Dina Titus in the 1st, Susie Lee in the 3rd (rated Lean or Likely Democratic), and Steven Horsford in the 4th benefit from established name recognition and district leans that have withstood recent Republican presidential performance in the state. The open 2nd District, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, features Republican nominee David Flippo against Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson; while one limited poll showed a narrow Democratic edge and Inside Elections shifted the seat from Solid to Likely Republican, historical voting patterns and structural advantages keep a flip improbable. Trader pricing at 64.5% for exactly three seats reflects the consensus that Democratic holds are probable while an upset in the northern district remains an underdog scenario.