- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?80¢80%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?65¢65%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?52¢52%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?42¢42%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?33¢33%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?23¢23%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?12¢12%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?12¢12%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% before 2027?9¢9%
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?6¢6%
Recent declines in the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.31% as of October 30 reflect softening near-term rate-hike expectations after the Fed’s September 25-basis-point increase to a 3.75–4.00% target range, alongside moderating inflation prints. Persistent upward pressure stems from resilient growth, elevated energy and AI-driven price pressures, rising term premiums tied to heavy Treasury supply amid widening fiscal deficits, and market-implied paths for the policy rate that exceed the FOMC median. Upcoming catalysts include the October employment report, November FOMC minutes and projections, and December inflation data, which could shift expectations for further tightening or a pause and thereby influence the yield’s lowest level before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).