- Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?32¢
- Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?52¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis target Saudi Arabia through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, directed at Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Saudi Arabia if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including any internal waters. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis and credible reporting.
Houthis have conducted multiple direct attacks on Saudi targets since mid-July 2026, breaking a multi-year informal truce that followed the 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire. Key developments include ballistic missile and drone strikes on Abha International Airport, Aramco oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, Najran province sites, and several Red Sea oil tankers, alongside a declared naval blockade in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia responded with airstrikes on Houthi-held ports and airports, while clashes intensified inside Yemen between Houthis and Saudi-backed government forces. These actions stem from longstanding disputes over border security, port access, and Iranian supply lines, with trader sentiment shaped by the pace of retaliation cycles and any signs of de-escalation through Oman-mediated talks or external diplomatic pressure. Further strikes or Saudi coalition responses could shift probabilities around specific resolution dates.