- Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?98¢
- Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 8% of the vote in 2026?90¢
- Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 12% of the vote in 2026?61¢
In the 2026 Senate elections, several Republican-held races in Plains and Mountain states feature independent challengers as the primary alternative to GOP incumbents after Democratic nominees withdrew in Nebraska, Idaho, and South Dakota. This has produced relatively clean two-candidate matchups in those contests, though additional minor-party candidates remain on the ballot in places like Nebraska, including Legal Marijuana Now, America First, and Nebraska Working People options. Libertarian candidates appear in multiple states, including Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, where historical third-party performance has occasionally reached low-single digits. Polling in competitive races such as Nebraska shows tight two-way contests between the top contenders, leaving room for the next finisher to capture a larger share amid voter interest in non-major-party options. With Election Day on November 3, final turnout patterns and any late shifts in minor-candidate support will determine the highest third-place percentage across the map.
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the vote share received by a third-place candidate in any of the 2026 U.S. Senate elections considered by this market is equal to or greater than the specified vote share. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The third-place candidate in each election is the candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in that election. Aggregated write-in or "scattering" totals that are not attributed to a single named candidate will not be considered a candidate. Elections with fewer than three candidates receiving votes have no third-place candidate. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election, or in the relevant round of the election as defined below. Vote shares will be considered unrounded. For elections that use ranked-choice voting or runoff elections, the relevant vote shares will be those of the first round. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. This market will resolve based on the single highest third-place vote share across all such elections. In the event that the relevant vote share for a candidate cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.