- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C or below on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 15?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or higher on October 15?<1¢
Trader consensus has converged on 23°C as the highest temperature in Wuhan on October 15, 2026, reflecting consistent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources. Official and model guidance show an overcast day with light rain or drizzle, southeasterly winds, and high humidity (often near 90–100%), which suppresses daytime heating after a cold front passage. Forecasts cluster tightly around a daytime maximum of 20–23°C, with several sources explicitly listing 23°C or 19–23°C ranges as the expected high; this aligns with the market-implied probability exceeding 99%. Recent developments, including the transition to the Cold Dew solar term and earlier reports of a roughly 10°C drop from mid-week warmth, have reinforced expectations of limited warming under persistent cloud cover and precipitation. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain narrow. They would require either unforecasted clearing that allows brief additional solar heating or official station readings (e.g., from the China Meteorological Administration network) peaking just outside the 23°C threshold due to localized variations or exact timing of the daily maximum. With model agreement high and resolution imminent, such deviations appear improbable.
Rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.