- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be less than 310,000?5¢5%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 310,000 and 340,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 340,000 and 370,000?13¢13%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 370,000 and 400,000?22¢22%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 400,000 and 430,000?33¢33%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 430,000 and 460,000?14¢14%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 460,000 and 490,000?6¢6%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be 490,000 or more?4¢4%
Recent early voting reports show mail ballot returns hovering around 15 percent as of late October, slower than comparable periods in 2022 and signaling subdued engagement ahead of the November 3 general election. Traders have placed the highest probability on 400,000–430,000 total votes cast, followed closely by the 370,000–400,000 and 340,000–370,000 brackets, reflecting expectations of turnout below the 419,000 recorded in the prior midterm. The noncompetitive governor’s race between incumbent Democrat Josh Green and Republican Gary Cordery, combined with an unusually long ballot featuring multiple county charter amendments, has dampened mobilization on Oahu, where most voters reside. Historical patterns in off-year elections without presidential or high-stakes legislative contests further support the current pricing distribution.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.