- Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.25 on August 31, 2026?2¢
- Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on August 31, 2026?3¢
- Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on August 31, 2026?39¢
- Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on August 31, 2026?45¢
- Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.25 on August 31, 2026?2¢
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H100 Index price for August 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
H100 rental prices at the end of August 2026 sit in a tight band around the $3 median on-demand rate, with the two leading Polymarket bins ($3.00–$3.25 at 41.5% and $2.75–$3.00 at 38.5%) reflecting balanced trader views on supply tightness versus provider competition. Recent NVIDIA earnings (August 27) highlighted the core driver: AI demand—especially inference and agentic workloads—continues to outpace supply, with memory (HBM) bottlenecks expected to constrain growth through at least fiscal 2028. NVIDIA guided ~70% revenue growth for the next year while noting unconstrained demand could support roughly double that, as production capacity shifts toward Blackwell and CoWoS/HBM packaging remains fully allocated. This has firmed H100 rates after 2025 lows, with median on-demand listings now clustering near $3.25–$3.39 across aggregators and 1-year committed rates having risen ~40% from late-2025 troughs. Competitive dynamics keep the outcome contested. Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) command significant premiums—often $6–12+ per GPU-hour—while neoclouds and marketplaces (Voltage Park, RunPod, Vast.ai, Lambda) deliver reliable on-demand capacity in the $2–4 range, with spot/interruptible options dipping below $2. Form factor matters: SXM variants typically price higher than PCIe or NVL, and node size or regional availability further fragments quotes. Newer Blackwell/H200 capacity and spot markets exert downward pressure, yet sustained inference demand and limited H100 availability (as fleets move to higher-margin silicon) support the current equilibrium near $3. Traders appear to weigh these offsetting forces—persistent memory and packaging constraints versus expanding specialized-cloud supply and pricing differentiation—without a decisive near-term catalyst to break the deadlock before month-end.