GPT-6 released by…?
- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?84¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?49¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?14¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?<1¢
- Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?2¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
OpenAI’s recent cadence of incremental GPT-5 point releases, including GPT-5.5 in April and GPT-5.6 Sol in July 2026, has shifted trader focus toward extended safety evaluations and infrastructure scaling rather than an imminent generational leap. The company’s August 1 reference to an internal “Astra” model family as the likely GPT-6 successor came without timelines, pricing, or rollout details, reinforcing market-implied odds that favor late 2026 or 2027. Competitive pressure from other labs and the scale of required red-teaming continue to favor deliberate pacing over rushed launches, though any confirmed pre-training completion or developer conference announcement could quickly alter sentiment.