- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?75¢75%
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?19¢19%
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?3¢3%
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?1¢1%
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1%
3%75%Google$657.2k Vol.
5%18.5%Anthropic$572.1k Vol.
2.9%OpenAI$315.8k Vol.
1.1%Meta$321.4k Vol.
0.4%Alibaba$282.2k Vol.
0.4%xAI$268.6k Vol.
0.3%DeepSeek$229.5k Vol.
0.2%Z.ai$266.2k Vol.
0.2%Moonshot$244.1k Vol.
Traders assign Google the highest implied probability of leading in AI models by end of 2026, driven by its deep integration of large language models like Gemini across search, Android, and cloud infrastructure, plus consistent benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodal tasks. Anthropic holds second place through Claude's safety-focused architecture and enterprise traction, while OpenAI's lower odds reflect heightened competition and platform shifts. Recent model updates and developer ecosystem growth have reinforced Google's position, with upcoming releases and regulatory developments likely to shape further sentiment shifts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.