- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?28¢28%
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?45¢45%
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?54¢54%
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?64¢64%
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?74¢74%
- 18%27.5%December 31, 2026$379.7k Vol.
- 27%44.5%January 31, 2027$75.9k Vol.
- 28%54%February 28, 2027$58.8k Vol.
- 10%63.5%June 30, 2027$97.4k Vol.
- 6%73.5%December 31, 2027$108.4k Vol.
Recent confirmation from Elon Musk on SpaceX’s late-October earnings call that both companies formed independent special committees to explore a merger has driven trader focus, citing synergies in artificial intelligence, superintelligence software, Terafab chip production, robotics, and orbital data centers. SpaceX’s recent IPO and strong revenue growth underscore shared ambitions in autonomous systems and connectivity, yet Musk stressed no terms are agreed and he remains excluded due to conflicts. A deal would require approval from a majority of all outstanding Tesla shares—a high bar given historical voting patterns—while Tesla’s December annual meeting and ongoing committee deliberations represent near-term catalysts that could clarify timelines or stall progress.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.