- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?3¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?14¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 23, 2026?15¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?17¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?28¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?52¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?56¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?66¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?70¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?76¢
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?97¢
Anthropic’s rapid release cadence following Claude Fable 5.1 in early September drives current market-implied odds for a Fable 5.2+ public launch, with leaks of internal pretraining runs and gray-box routing traffic signaling active development of the next large language model iteration. Traders price an October 31 release near 80% and December 31 near 97%, reflecting Anthropic’s pattern of frequent updates focused on coding, agentic tasks, and multimodal capabilities amid competition from models like GLM-5.2. No official announcement or public access has occurred yet, though credible reports note ongoing testing that could accelerate rollout. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or API updates that would confirm public availability thresholds and resolve near-term contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.