- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?<1¢<1%
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?<1¢<1%
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?<1¢<1%
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?2¢2%
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?51¢51%
- Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?48¢48%
Recent forecasts from institutions including Vanguard, Wells Fargo, and the Federal Reserve place 2026 U.S. real GDP growth around 2.3%, supported by AI-fueled business investment and resilient consumer spending that have kept quarterly readings firm despite September's hotter CPI at 3.7% year-over-year. The near-even split between the 2.0–2.5% and >2.5% brackets on Polymarket reflects trader focus on whether capital expenditure momentum and tax policy tailwinds can sustain above-trend expansion or whether additional Fed rate hikes—following the September increase to a 3.75–4.00% target range—will exert enough drag through tighter financial conditions. Key near-term catalysts include the Q3 GDP advance estimate due October 29 and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift the market-implied path.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.