- Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?68¢
- Will Ousainou Darboe win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?22¢
- Will Bakary K. Badjie win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?4¢
- Will Essa Faal win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?3¢
- Will Mohamed Al Amin Bah win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Talib Ahmed Bensouda win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Mama Kandeh win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?<1¢
Adama Barrow holds a strong lead in the Gambia presidential election market due to his position as incumbent since 2017 and ongoing campaign emphasis on infrastructure gains, job creation, expanded electricity access, and education improvements over the past decade. The December 5, 2026 vote features a fragmented opposition, with Ousainou Darboe of the UDP as the main challenger alongside figures such as Talib Ahmed Bensouda, Mama Kandeh, Bakary K. Badjie, Essa Faal, and Mohamed Al Amin Bah. Recent weeks have seen Barrow's nationwide Meet the People tour highlighting continuity, while opposition groups pursue unity talks that remain unresolved ahead of November nominations. This setup contributes to trader consensus favoring the sitting president, though late coalition shifts or voter registration disputes could still influence final probabilities before polling.
Rules
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in The Gambia on December 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Gambian presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by the Independent Electoral Commission of The Gambia (https://www.iec.gm/).