- Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?3¢3%
- Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?6¢6%
- Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?3¢3%
- Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?7¢7%
- Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?8¢8%
- Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?3¢3%
- Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?6¢6%
- Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?3¢3%
- Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?3¢3%
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?19¢19%
- Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?2¢2%
- Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?21¢21%
As of early November 2026, the French presidential race for the April 2027 first round shows pronounced polarization, with Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon consistently leading polls and raising prospects of an extremes runoff. Le Pen formally launched her campaign in late October amid protests over living costs, while Raphaël Glucksmann secured the social-democrat nomination in an October primary. Centrist figures including Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe have declared but face internal rivalry and declining support, prompting calls for a unifying primary. Several potential candidates, such as François Hollande, have signaled decisions by December, with others like Bruno Le Maire still weighing bids ahead of the 500-sponsorship threshold. Legal proceedings for Le Pen and scheduled party votes continue to shape the field of declared contenders.
Rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.