- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be less than 7,000,000?4¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 7,000,000 and 7,250,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 7,250,000 and 7,500,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 7,500,000 and 7,750,000?14¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 7,750,000 and 8,000,000?30¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 8,000,000 and 8,250,000?18¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 8,250,000 and 8,500,000?1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 8,500,000 and 8,750,000?4¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 8,750,000 and 9,000,000?6¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be 9,000,000 or more?30¢
Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon features closely matched trader probabilities across the 7.75M–8M and 9M+ turnout brackets because total participation hinges on mobilization of no-party-affiliation voters and relative partisan enthusiasm. Republican registration advantages and stronger primary performance have supported expectations of solid base turnout, while Democratic efforts focus on boosting independent and younger participation through early and mail voting. Midterm special-election patterns, recent polling averages showing a Moody lead of roughly six to eight points, and ongoing get-out-the-vote intensity keep the 7.5M–9M range competitive. Separation between brackets will likely depend on final-week independent engagement and overall ballot return rates before November 3.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.