- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?89¢
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?11¢
Recent forecaster shifts to Lean Democratic for Florida’s 25th Congressional District have reinforced trader consensus around incumbent Jared Moskowitz. Multiple ratings outlets, including the Cook Political Report on October 16 and Sabato’s Crystal Ball earlier in the month, moved the race from toss-up status after Moskowitz maintained his position despite substantial Republican ad spending exceeding $14 million since Labor Day. The district’s mix of Jewish and Hispanic voters, combined with Moskowitz’s pro-Israel record and bipartisan background, has helped sustain his edge in this redrawn South Florida seat. The Congressional Leadership Fund’s October 20 decision to abandon the contest further signals limited Republican momentum heading into the November 3 general election.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).