- Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?74¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?27¢
Incumbent Republican Anna Paulina Luna holds a clear edge in Florida’s 13th congressional district, a seat with a Republican partisan lean where the 2024 presidential margin favored the GOP by over 13 points. Luna’s reelection bids in prior cycles produced roughly nine-point victories, supported by stronger overall fundraising and cash on hand compared with Democratic challenger Leela Gray. Recent polling averages show Luna ahead by several points, though Democratic-aligned surveys have indicated tighter margins and prompted several nonpartisan raters to shift the contest from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Early in-person voting data through late October reflected a Republican turnout advantage. The November 3 general election timing leaves limited room for further shifts before ballots close.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).