- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?3¢
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?34¢
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?38¢
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?18¢
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?7¢
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?2¢
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?<1¢
Recent three-day posting windows for Elon Musk on X have clustered in the 64–112 range, anchoring trader consensus around the 40–89 brackets that now hold over 70% combined implied probability. Elevated weekly volumes earlier in October, including resolved markets near 340–359 posts, reflect bursts tied to product launches, AI updates, and platform commentary, yet shorter intervals often moderate due to weekend lulls and the absence of immediate high-stakes catalysts through October 19. The tight spread between the two leading outcomes underscores day-to-day volatility driven by breaking news flow and Musk’s real-time engagement style, with traders weighing historical short-window data against the risk of sudden spikes from unscripted events.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 17 12:00 PM ET to October 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.