- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?4¢
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?27¢
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?33¢
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?24¢
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?10¢
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?4¢
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?2¢
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?<1¢
Elon Musk's historically variable posting volume on X drives the tight clustering around 65-89 tweets for October 15-17, with traders weighing his typical daily output of 20-40 posts against short-term fluctuations from news cycles or company updates. Recent patterns show bursts tied to Tesla earnings, SpaceX milestones, or political commentary, while quieter stretches occur during travel or focused work periods, explaining why the 40-64 and 90-114 brackets sit close behind at 27% and 24%. Key swing factors include any major announcements or real-time engagement spikes that could push totals higher or prompt restraint, consistent with past three-day windows where totals have ranged widely but rarely exceed 140 without extraordinary events. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated trader assessment of these dynamics rather than any guaranteed outcome.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 15 12:00 PM ET to October 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.